NFL - Divisional Playoff Picks

So I wanted to get these out early enough in case you wanted to jump on board for the potential fiery crash that can be my football picks. This also gives you good lead time to ponder the exact opposite of everything I'm saying here. That's the disclaimer. Read beyond at your own risk.

First, an update of the mrjackstrawSays ESPN Gridiron Challenge standings after week 1 of the playoffs...

1 Sparty Rules - 133
1 PEI Phantoms - 133
3 mrjackstraw - 121
4 Ken Brown727 - 120
4 tr3k3l - 120
6 The Hook and Ladder - 116
7 Peter North Starts - 113
8 Victorious Secret - 99

The competition will really be Heating as we go forward. The winner receives a non-Blu-Ray DVD of Heat starring Pacino & De Niro.

I can't remember a time when it seems so little faith has been had in the Bye Teams. I know they are all favored, and I think Vegas is pretty much obligated to do so but we have a week where some of the bye teams didn't finish off the season too well going against underdogs who can play on the road and really seem to be firing on all cylinders. Of all the 8 teams I don't see one team that can't go out and win its game outright. Now a statement like that is a good indication that I will be accepting points this weekend. Let's break it down...

Arizona +7 over NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans has done nothing of consequence since beating New England. In fact they've looked pretty regular. And they also haven't played what you would call a "must win" game all year. Sure they have a lot of weapons, but in their last 2 games in which their starters played they couldn't even put up 20 points. If Arizona can establish a ground attack, things will really open up for Warner & the aerial attack. The Cards D needs to play better than last week for sure, but I think GB's offense is a different animal than NO's right now. The crowd will be pumped in the Superdome and the libations will have been flowing all day so the atmosphere should be great. I have to admit I have a soft spot for New Orleans. I've had some great times there and I met my girl there 1 year to the day before that bitch Katrina showed up. New Orleans fans deserve a pay-off and hey maybe they'll win, but I'm taking the points for 4 6 Units. I'm also putting 1U on the under because 57.5 is a knee jerk reaction to last week. If it does go over then it will probably be a hell of a game and whatever.

Baltimore +6.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
For a lot of the same reasons as mentioned above. Manning and the Colts have never excelled after a late season rest + a bye. There is something to be said about maintaining game edge and you can't tell me they have it. The Baltimore D is nasty even as it ages. They held the Colts to just 17 in Baltimore earlier this year. Ray Rice is going to pound it too. And pound it. And pound it. Then they will give it to Willis McG. And he too will pound the rock. They will try to dominate time of possession and keep Peyton off the field. Flacco just needs to play steady and protect the ball. The Colts D is not scary at all. GIMMIE DA POINTS PLEASE!!! 4 Units.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Dallas
This was a hard one for me. Dallas is playing great and they have so many weapons on both sides of the ball. Romo has cleared a few mental hurdles in the last few games and he's got to be thinking it's all gravy from here. I expect him to be fairly relaxed. On the other side we have the Vikings who have not been great down the stretch, but they did play out the season to earn the #2 seed. Maybe the time off healed a few nagging injuries? This game will come down to turnovers. A couple of stupid throws by either guy and one side will be trying to come back against the other's above average D. Favre is the most likely to "chuck & hope" but he's also the most likely to lead either team on a late 4th quarter drive when it's all on the line. Which AP will we see? The 1st half AP or the 2nd half AP? This is one of the few home field advantages left in the NFL according to Bill Simmons. He picks worse than me. 2 Units on Minny.

New York Jets +7.5 over SAN DIEGO
I booked this bet for 2 Units as soon as the line came out. It's dropped to 7 points and it wouldn't surprise me if it fell another half point. It was probably a knee jerk reaction by me after the Jets hosed me last week, but I'm glad I got in when I did since the spread was only ever going to move in one direction. If the SD defense has any sort of success stopping the Jets running game we'll see what the rookie QB can do in another road playoff game. If he starts turning it over SD is going to make the Jets pay. As good as the Jets D is will they be able to stop Rivers and his giant WRs + Gates? What if LT reemerges? If SD can control time of possession I think they win the game. I don't think this is necessarily so for the Jets. I'm really not convinced in my hasty pick here, but I don't hate it either.

I'm not condoning it, but if you must place a wager to get any enjoyment out of your sports fetish I place all my bets at SPORTS INTERACTION.


Recap:
Arizona +7 for 6 Units
Baltimore +6.5 for 4 Units
Minnesota -2.5 for 2 Units
New York +7.5 for 2 Units

Good luck people!

Championship Sunday & Other Stuff Too

I know nobody comes here for pick advice. (yet) Ha Ha! But I will continue to make them. Last week I ran off four losses. You're welcome. It should be noted that I don't make my living off of sports betting so use this info accordingly. I'm also on a nice little run in a poker tournament so this post may be splotchy.

CARDINALS (+4) over Eagles
How about them Cardinals? Did anyone expect them to go into Carolina and lay the beatdown on the Panthers the way they did? Nice work if you did. I didn't. So now we have the NFC Championship being hosted in Arizona. I bet they wish they were hosting the Big Game this year instead of last.

I like the points at home in this one. I think Warner is in a better position to succeed than McNabb. He just has more weapons at his disposal. I actually like the Cards to win this game outright.

Ravens (+6) over STEELERS
Another week, another road playoff game for rookie QB Joe Flacco. This has been a great season and a great run for the Baltimore Ravens. That game last week vs the Titans was fierce. I think Baltimore was lucky to come out of it though.

These teams have already played twice this year with Pittsburgh winning both, but they were close. I think this game will be close and therefore I'll take the points. I like the Steelers to win a close one, but it's not inconceivable that the Ravens could be heading for Tampa Bay.

As always I never encourage sports-betting, but if you do feel so inclined Sports Interaction is where I'd go. Yes, they have poker too!

Last week: 0-4
Playoffs: 2-6


...The Detroit Lions hired a new head coach - Jim Schwartz. I am happy they finally went with a defensive guy. Now if only they can somehow trade down a spot or two in the draft and resist the temptation to take a QB. I am hoping (praying) that this team will be built from the lines out with an emphasis on developing a nasty defense. We have tried other ways and the results speak for themselves. Good luck coach!

...we are down to 38/560. My stack is shrinking. I made a mega donk move to lose over half my chips when I played AJo vs KK. We'll see what happens. I gotta bear down now. I'll post the results when I finish.

***Just busted 34th. K8d lost to ATo. Had two diamonds on the flop. Alas, the third one never showed. $11>$27. meh...

-mrjackstraw

RE: NFL Playoff Picks Week Two

OOOOPS!







I guess that about sums up my picks for the week. Besides my game analysis, the best advice I can offer you is to take a look at my pick, flip them, and take it from there :) How 'bout them Red Wings?

NFL Playoffs Week 2 Picks

Well, last week wasn't great, wasn't awful. It just was. I came out of it with a 2-2-0 record.

Let's get to it:

TITANS (-3) over Ravens

Nice work by Baltimore last week to go on the road with a rookie QB and to get what ended up amounting to a pretty easy victory. The difference between the Ravens and the Falcons when it comes to backing a rookie QB on the road is their defense. Pay attention Lions. A ferocious D can make up for a lot. This is what we saw last week. This week however, is a much different story as the Ravens will be up against a defense comparable to their own and a Titans team that has had time to get healthy. Don't forget that these guys have been the cream of the crop in the AFC all year. I make their defenses a wash and give the edge in offense to the Titans. That plus home field should see them cover this spread. I also think this number is smaller than it should be after all the hype about the Ravens D. I am looking forward to this one.

PANTHERS (-10) over Cardinals

The Cardinals protected their home field and took care of the Falcons 30-24. I like Atlanta and I think we're going to be seeing a lot of them in the playoffs over the next few years. It was good experience for young Matt Ryan and Falcon's fans should be excited for the future. There's no reason to let the names Vick and Petrino be anything more than punchlines.

It's been a good year for the Cardinals. They won their division and hosted a playoff game. Say goodnight. Panthers are 8-0 at home. Cardinals are 3-5 on the road. Factor in the rest that Carolina got, their two-headed running monster of Stewart and Williams and a questionable Boldin and I think the table is set for a blowout.

GIANTS (-4) over Eagles

I don't get this line. I really don't. I have no idea how Philly is going to be able to put up any points in this game. Their offense last week was brutal and this week they are meeting a better defense who is well rested, playing at home and defending their title. As long as Eli doesn't turn it over this one is money. I have nothing else. Ha ha.

Chargers (+6) over STEELERS

UNDERDOG!!!!!! Hey, ya gotta have one, right? I think the Chargers can win this game outright although it'll be close. I'm taking the Chargers and the points because of the following: I trust Rivers more than Roethlisberger. Big Ben is coming off another concussion and the Charger defense really impressed me last week. It's going to be cold in Pittsburgh (-4C or 25F for those metrically challenged) so I think this will be a game of field position. Sproles. Need I say more.

Last week: 2-2

OK. Those are the picks. I never encourage sports-betting, but if you do feel so inclined Sports Interaction is where I'd go. Yes, they have poker too.

NFL Wildcard Weekend

OK. The playoffs are here and the first weekend offers some intriguing match-ups. It's weird that we seem to have a scenario where everyone is jumping all over the visitors who are favored in all 4 games. Without further ado...

ARIZONA CARDNIALS(+1.5) over Atlanta Falcons
This will be a nice win for either franchise, but Arizona really has something to prove here. They've had to listen to people saying that they came through a weak division, that they're soft and that they can't match up against good teams in big games. This is their chance to change that perception. They are up against a rookie QB and a RB that hasn't done nearly as much on the road as he has at home. That's not to say Matt Ryan and Michael Turner can't have great games and win this thing, but in a game that's essentially a pick'em, I'll take points and the home field. Besides, It'll be fun cheering for Warner.


Indianapolis Colts(-1) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Another pick'em. Indy has won 9 in a row while SD has knocked off 4 in a row. The difference between this game and the one above is that here you have Tony Dungy vs. Norv Turner, Peyton vs. Philip, and a defense that is better across the board. 'nough said.


Baltimore Ravens (-3) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Miami had a great year. Baltimore's was a bit better though. Stats wise, they are better than the Fish on both sides of the ball. There is the rookie QB factor with Flacco, but I like them to game plan to prevent any silly mistakes. Baltimore's losses were to Pittsburgh (twice), Indianapolis, Tennessee, and New York Giants. I mean, those are good teams. Plus Baltimore killed them on this field in Week 7 so until being proven otherwise there's no reason to believe anything different.


MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+3) over Philadelphia
Eagles
I know everyone loves Philly here, but with just 3 points vs a very uninspired Washington 2 weeks ago I'm going to take Peterson, the home crowd and the three points thank-you-very-much. Clock management could decide this one.

2009 Playoff Record
0-0-0

I in no way condone sports-betting, but if I did Sports Interaction is where I would go.